Birth Again

First, nobody is afraid to talk about birth.

The fact that some folks just don’t want to look at Nicole’s hoo-ha and a turd coming out of her rectum is not an indication of fear.  I don’t want to see her have a bowel movement, either, and that’s a natural process.  Nor do I want to witness her menstrual period in living color.

Shall we have a public conversation about peeing?  Let’s all take close up photos of the process and put them on Facebook.

I have seen more births than Nicole has. (She has actually seen none at all, since you can’t really see very much if you happen to own the vagina where it’s happening.)  It’s a fascinating process, whether it’s human or bovine, but so are sex and digestion and brain surgery.

Not wanting to talk about it endlessly and view fifty million photos of the process doesn’t denote fear. It might just be due to boredom.

She’s going to ride this, though, because it’s her only claim to fame.  It’s her accomplishment.

But her foray into statistical analysis is even more fascinating.

Her math is all wrong.  Math is hard.

Did you get that?  Leaving out fetal deaths prior to twenty weeks gestation (what we call miscarriages, and the medical world refers to as spontaneous abortion), the fetal death rate is about 6 per 1000 pregnancies.

That’s a whopping 0.6%.  Not even 1%.

If you take Nicole’s data, leaving out the miscarriages (if they were in fact less than 20 weeks gestation, something we do not know for sure), she has had one fetal death in 12 pregnancies.  That is a fetal death rate of 8.3%.  That’s almost 14 times greater than the statistical data suggests.

Her attitude is so god damned cavalier. It’s as though that dead baby was disposable.  Oh, gee, you win most of the time, but occasionally you lose one. Oh well. . .

But really, that baby’s death was not an out-of-the-blue, unpredictable event.  It was as easy to see coming as a hurricane on the Gulf coast.

Click image to link to source

The perinatal mortality rate in the grand multipara group was 23.5%; there were no perinatal deaths among controls.

You see, this is the situation.

In the first statistic I cited, a fetal death rate of 0.6%, they are taking all pregnancies past twenty weeks into the database.  All of them. First pregnancies, 4th pregnancies, 6th pregnancies, 12th pregnancies.  They’re compiling the data as though all these pregnancies are created equal.

And they aren’t, of course.

The truth is that a woman’s reproductive organs age.  Time will do them in (I still have all mine and I’m quite sure they are shriveled up and horrible looking).  Live long enough and they will completely quit functioning.

Not only does time do them in, use does as well.  The more pregnancies you have had, the higher the risk to the fetus.

Let me say that again.

Every time you get pregnant, you are faced with a bit of an increase in risk to the fetus.  In those early years, especially if you’re not 35 when you have your first pregnancy, the risk is so slight as to be statistically meaningless.

But it begins to snowball, and by the time you’re a grand multip, the risk of fetal death is 23.5%, or at least, it was in that study.  I’ve seen studies with lower figures, but the risk of fetal death among grand multips is still quite a bit higher than the risk for earlier pregnancies.

Nicole Naugler is not a grand multip.  That’s a woman who has had five pregnancies prior to the current one. That ship sailed for Nicole long ago.

She is a great grand multip.

Yippee.  She’s “great” at something.

The fetal death risk for a great grand multip, by the most conservative data I could find, is four times greater than for women having their 1-5 pregnancy.

The risk gets greater as the pregnancies happen.  It’s a snowball effect.

I wrote about this before. More than once.  People warned her.  Even her humpers expressed concern. Right up until the last minute, people were telling her she needed to see a doctor.

And I will say it again. Nicole Naugler took a massive gamble by having that 15th pregnancy.  She gambled and lost. She could have suffered the ultimate loss and died.

If she tries it again, she’s suicidal. If Joe Naugler gets her pregnant knowingly (and with Nicole, that means if he has unprotected sex with her even once), he’s trying to kill her.